War and the Artificial Pine Plantations of the Oleshky Sands: On the Threshold of a New Reality

[Москаленко, Ю., Ніточко, М., Плющ, С. Війна і штучні соснові насадження Олешківських пісків: на порозі нової реальності]

Yurii Moskalenko,https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9121-7832

Maria Nitochko,https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4666-5687

Sergii Pliushch,https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4206-8073

Black Sea Biosphere Reserve, NAS of Ukraine (Hola Prystan, Ukraine)

Cite as

Moskalenko, Y., Nitochko, M., & Pliushch, S. (2026). War and the Artificial Pine Plantations of the Oleshky Sands: On the Threshold of a New Reality. GEO&BIO, 28, 83-97.

doi: https://doi.org/10.53452/gb2808

pdf: G&B №28-2026_83-97_Moskalenko.pdf

Abstract

The aim of this study was to assess the scale of pyrogenic losses of artificial pine plantations in the Oleshky Sands during the three years following the onset of the region’s occupation as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, as well as to evaluate their potential ecological consequences. Using Sentinel-2 remote sensing data and machine-learning methods based on an artificial neural network, we modelled the distribution of pine plantations as of 23 February 2022 and 12 February 2025. A comparison of these results revealed that, over the study period, the pine plantations of the Oleshky Sands experienced unprecedented decline and fragmentation due to fires, losing around 30,000 ha, or 64.3% of their pre-invasion extent. In absolute terms, the greatest losses occurred on the Oleshkivska and Kozacholaherska arenas, where 8.818 thousand ha and 5.896 thousand ha of pine stands burned, respectively. In relative terms, the most severely affected were the artificial forests of the Kinburn Peninsula, where 4.808 thousand ha of pine plantations — amounting to 86.1% of their area as of early 2022 — were destroyed by fire within three years of the full-scale invasion. The cumulative pyrogenic losses incurred over previous decades in peacetime, together with those of the occupation period, have resulted in the semi-natural pine-forest ecosystem that developed during the second half of the twentieth century losing its dominant role in the landscapes of the Oleshky Sands. It is assumed that such extensive forest loss will trigger profound restructuring of the region’s ecosystems, including successional dynamics, the spatial organisation of plant and animal communities, hydrological regimes, and soil chemical properties. The article outlines several potential directions of these transformations. The findings allow the formulation of hypotheses regarding future changes in the Oleshky Sands, including those that can be verified through remote-sensing monitoring. The latter primarily concern the rate of deadwood decay on burned sites, spontaneous vegetation recovery, and the development and spread of deflation processes. Establishing a systematic monitoring framework to test these hypotheses, followed by broader post-deoccupation research into the environmental consequences of the war, will form the basis for developing an adaptive management strategy for the Oleshky Sands aligned with conservation objectives.

Key words

Oleshky Sands, artificial pine plantations, war-related environmental impact, deflation, post-fire succession, remote sensing

Correspondence to: Yurii Moskalenko; Black Sea Biosphere Reserve, NAS of Ukraine, 1 Lebedyna Street, Hola Prystan 75600, Ukraine; e-mail: strix@strix.ks.ua

Article info

Submitted: 19.11.2025. Revised: 04.12.2026. Accepted: 27.02.2026

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